The key elements of a betting strategy

When evaluating a betting strategy, there are many elements to consider. It is not just a
case of looking at the profit/loss as any system could hit one big priced winner that makes it
look successful but if you took that out then it would be running at a large loss. Or a system
may produce a profit but have a very low strike rate, meaning staking will be small and bank
growth slower.
Below we assess the key elements of a betting strategy and how you should weight them
when judging the merits of a system:
• Strike rate
Strike rate means how often the system wins. So for example, if a system had a 100 bets
and 53 of them won, we would say it has a 53% strike rate.
Strike rate is one of the most crucial elements of any betting system. As mentioned above, a
system with a low strike rate means low staking and slow bank growth, where as a hi
So for example one system may produce just a couple of bets per week whilst another
produces 10 bets per day.
The number of bets a system generates is a crucial factor in how fast your bank will grow.
Many people are put off by systems that produce a lot of bets, not liking having to stake a
lot of money at once on various bets, fearing they could all lose.
Placing lots of bets in one go can be a scary prospect – whether it be in a casino or elsewhere
However, this is generally a mistake. If you are sticking to sensible money management and
risking a safe, fixed percentage of your bank each time and a system works, then it shouldn’t
matter if you are placing 10 bets per day.
If you are getting nervous about placing lots of bets in one day, then you are probably
staking too much.
All else being equal, a system that has 10 bets a day will grow 10 times faster than a system
with 1 bet a day. That will have an absolutely massive impact on how much money you
make.
Now at the same time, generally systems with high numbers of bets do not obtain as high a
return on investment (ROI) as systems with low numbers of bets.
This is because really good opportunities, where the bookies have misquoted the odds on a
selection by 30% or more, are pretty rare. This may only happen a few times per week. But
they get the price wrong by 10% much more often – indeed many times per day, so that
explains the difference in returns.
The key point though is that if a system can maintain a reasonable ROI whilst having a high
number of bets then it will produce good returns in the long run and you should not be put
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off by a system that generates large numbers of bets – it can increase your bank much more
quickly than a system that has a higher ROI but lower bet volume, as we will see below.
• Return on investment (ROI)
Return on investment, or ROI as it is usually referred to, means how much return you get on
your money.
So for example when someone says a return on investment of 30%, what they mean is that
for every £100 you invested on a particular system, you would get £130 back (i.e. £30
profit).
Many people consider ROI to be the most important figure when deciding on the merits of a
betting system. I used to think this myself.
Now I would strongly argue that it is NOT the important statistic.
Imagine one system that has a great long term ROI, say 30% (which is outstanding) but a low
bet volume and strike rate. It only sends out three bets a week and these are at high odds,
meaning a low strike rate, of let’s say 10%, meaning you decide to stake a fixed 0.5%, or £5,
on each selection,
Even with such a great return on investment, at fixed staking levels it would take over 4
years to double your bank of £1,000.
Now take another system that has a much lower ROI of 10%, generally considered good but
not that special.
However, it has a high bet volume of 3 bets per day and a very high strike rate of 85%,
meaning you can bet a fixed 10%, i.e. £100, on each selection.
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At fixed staking levels, it would take just over a month to double your bank of £1,000,
compared to over 4 years with the system with 30% ROI.
Now which one would you prefer?
I know which one I would prefer. This is illustrated in the example below.
• Profit and loss
Profit and loss simply means how much a given system has won or lost in a given period.
It is usually calculated on a “points” basis to account for the fact that people wager at very
different levels.
Whilst wealthy banker Bob may like to wager £1,000 on every bet he has, average Joe might
prefer to bet just £1.50 on his selections.
To account for this and also to level the playing field between different systems that might
like to wager at different levels, we talk about points invested.
For example, a system might say “We recommend using a 100 point bank for our system.”
Let’s say you had £1,000 you wanted to invest. That would mean you would divide £1,000
by 100, giving £10.
Each point would be £10, so if the system says “back all selections for 1 point” you would
bet £10 on each selection. Or if it said put 2 points on certain selections, you would bet £20,
and so on.
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System A System B
ROI: 30% 10%
Strike rate: 10% 85%
Bet Volume: 3 per week 3 per day
Bank after 2 years: £1,468 £22,840
It goes without saying that profit and loss is very important. However, don’t be fooled into
thinking it is the only thing that matters.
A system could have notched 50 points profit in a month and be shouting from the rooftops
about how brilliant it is.
But when you delve into its results, you discover it got lucky and tipped one 100/1 winner. If
you took that out of the results, it actually finished 50 points down. What if you were in an
urgent meeting at work and had missed that 100/1 winner? How would you feel then?
It is important to look closely at the results and see overall trends. Was this month just a
lucky one or are they regularly producing profitable months? How long is the track record of
results – the longer the better.
• Bank growth
When we say bank growth we mean if you started off with a given amount of money you
decide you want to risk – a “betting bank” so to speak – how much has that grown over a
given period?
So for example, if you started off with a £1,000 to invest in a betting system and after a year
you had £1,500, you would say you have achieved bank growth of 50%.
Bank growth is ultimately the most important question and should be the number one
factor in deciding whether to follow a betting system. The bottom line is:
If I started off with £1,000 and followed this system for a year, how much money would I
have? Would it have doubled and be £2,000? Would it have quadrupled and be £4,000?
All of the other elements will go into determining the answer to this question, but ultimately
this is the most important question.
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Most important factors in assessing a tipster’s record
(most important first)
1. Bank Growth
2. Profit / loss
3. Strike rate
4. Frequency of bets
5. ROI

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